Bitcoin has been experiencing wild price swings recently, struggling to maintain the $100,000 mark as strong support. Despite numerous attempts, BTC has faced resistance, leading to heightened selling pressure.
The current market situation indicates that Bitcoin's failure to hold crucial price levels could weaken its position, making it susceptible to a potential downturn.
The driving force behind Bitcoin's price movement lies with short-term holders (STH) who are key players in the market dynamics. Their holding patterns resemble the accumulation phase observed in May 2021 when Bitcoin saw a surge in supply, causing investors to be on edge about any downward movement. If BTC fails to sustain above $92,500, these holders might start selling, adding to the selling pressure.
If demand remains steady, Bitcoin could establish a new range above its all-time highs. However, a lack of sustained buying pressure could trigger a significant correction.
Market indicators such as the RHODL Ratio, which tracks the balance between mid-cycle holders and new entrants, point to a rise in short-term speculative activity. While not at extreme levels yet, this trend aligns with past patterns seen towards the later stages of bull cycles, potentially signaling an impending correction.
Bitcoin's price is currently hovering between $98,212 and $95,761, prompting concerns of a possible decline. The repeated testing of lower support levels suggests that Bitcoin could face a retest, leading to increased selling pressure and a sharper drop.
Considering macro trends and short-term holder supply distribution, Bitcoin may undergo a short-term correction, with a possible drop to $93,625 and further down to $92,005 if bearish momentum strengthens. These levels are crucial support zones that could influence the next market direction.
On a positive note, continued accumulation by long-term investors could provide the needed momentum for Bitcoin to break above $98,212. Reclaiming $100,000 could spark bullish momentum, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards its all-time high of $105,000.