Solana has recently experienced significant price appreciation, reaching its highest level in two months and coming close to surpassing $180. Yet, it is encountering a crucial resistance point that has prevented the altcoin from surpassing $200. The journey to reach $200 may prove to be challenging for Solana due to market conditions and investor actions.
Many holders of Solana (SOL) are opting to take profits, leading to an increase in the Realized Profit/Loss ratio to 15.0. This suggests that excessive selling could pose a potential issue. Historically, when this ratio surpasses the threshold of 10.0, it often results in short-term price corrections. The selling behavior could heighten market volatility, potentially hindering Solana's ongoing rally and impacting its price.
Additionally, Solana's technical indicators indicate that its bullish momentum might be approaching saturation, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently above 70.0, indicating an overbought status. This situation reflects a similar pattern observed in mid-January 2025, where Solana encountered a price decline after reaching these levels. Consequently, the RSI, in conjunction with investor behavior, hints at a potential short-term price drop for Solana.
Despite a 61% price surge in the past month, with Solana trading at $170, the coin is close to the $180 resistance level and the anticipated $200 threshold. If the current upward trend persists, Solana could break through these barriers and proceed towards $200, generating more interest and investments.
Nevertheless, the outlined factors raise apprehensions about Solana's price trajectory. The combined impact of increased selling pressure and overbought technical indicators may trigger a price reversal. Should this occur, Solana's price might retreat to $161 or lower, with $148 emerging as a critical support level. This would uphold the $180 barrier in the coming three months, delaying the awaited breakthrough.
Conversely, if new investors absorb the sold SOL and the price maintains its gains, Solana could surpass the $180 resistance, paving the way for $200 and negating the bearish forecast. Achieving this would demand sustained market confidence and robust demand to overcome the current hurdles.