Wall Street's leading bear is not convinced that a mere pause in reciprocal tariffs will calm the markets and prevent a downturn. According to Peter Berezin, the chief strategist at BCA Research, current tariff rates are among the highest since the 1930s, and there is uncertainty about their reduction. Berezin believes that most countries do not impose significant trade barriers on the US, adding that this uncertainty, coupled with other factors, could lead to an upcoming recession.

Berezin, who accurately predicted the absence of a US recession in 2022, now estimates a 75% chance of a recession this year, projecting a 15% drop in the S&P 500. Despite recent fluctuations in the markets, including a sharp decline on Thursday, some experts remain optimistic and view the situation as a potential opportunity to invest in defensive stocks instead of pursuing former high-performing stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla.