UBS and Mizuho analysts revised down their price targets for Tesla due to concerns about the possible impact of tariffs on the wider auto industry. The demand for electric vehicles is currently low, with estimates suggesting a further 11% drop in sales by 2025 according to UBS. These analysts also adjusted their price estimates for General Motors, Rivian, and several auto suppliers.
The decrease in Tesla's targets was attributed to worries about tariffs weakening the auto industry. UBS lowered its target price for Tesla to $190, projecting an 11% decline in vehicle deliveries by 2025. Mizuho analysts anticipated that tariffs will raise Tesla prices, exacerbating the already weakening demand, resulting in a lowered target price of $375. The consensus analyst estimate for Tesla falls at around $327, indicating a nearly 30% increase from Thursday's closing price, as per Visible Alpha.
UBS expressed concerns about the high trajectory of earnings for Tesla and predicted downward movement in its shares despite expected lower 2025 estimates. Trade policy shifts and Elon Musk's cost-cutting efforts have influenced Tesla's stock prices, leading to fluctuations in the market. Although Tesla shares closed over 7% lower on Thursday, they were still up by over 40% from the previous year.
Trade policies, including high tariffs on Chinese goods such as car batteries, are expected to significantly impact Tesla's revenue in the U.S. by 2025, with Mizuho estimating a potential 3.5% reduction. UBS highlighted the sector-specific nature of the tariffs, predicting lasting effects on the auto industry.
UBS analysts warned that the tariffs could increase car costs by an average of $5,000 and reduce domestic demand by 9%, potentially reshaping the U.S. auto industry. They emphasized that production disruptions and a need to rethink supply chains are likely outcomes of the current trade policies.