According to a report by Goldman Sachs, it is predicted that Brent and WTI crude prices will reach $62 and $58 per barrel by December 2025, and $55 and $51 per barrel by December 2026 respectively, assuming two scenarios. The first scenario is based on the U.S. economy avoiding a recession due to significant reductions in tariffs set to be enforced on April 9. The second scenario assumes a moderate increase in supply from eight OPEC+ countries with two final increments of 130,000-140,000 barrels each in June-July. However, Goldman Sachs mentioned that in a typical U.S. recession and their baseline OPEC scenario, Brent prices are projected to decrease to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026 respectively.

Goldman Sachs stated that oil prices could go above their forecasts in the event of a sharp change in tariff policies. The bank recently adjusted its annual average price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude for 2026 due to rising risks of recession and the likelihood of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply.

In response to increased tariff threats between the U.S. and China, Goldman Sachs elaborated on the risks of a prolonged trade war that might lead to a global economic downturn. In a scenario of a global GDP slowdown while keeping the OPEC baseline constant, Brent could potentially drop to $54 by December 2025 and $45 by December 2026. In an extreme scenario, if there is a downturn in global GDP alongside a complete reversal of OPEC+ cuts that would impact non-OPEC supply, Brent prices could fall to slightly below $40 per barrel by late 2026.

As of Tuesday 0603 GMT, Brent crude was trading at around $64.72 per barrel, and WTI at $61.26.