Citi Research has revised its price forecasts for Brent, copper, and aluminum in the short term due to recent tariff announcements. The new projections are $60 per barrel for Brent oil, $8,000 per metric ton for copper, and $2,200 per ton for aluminum.
The trade tensions escalated last week when U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports and other countries responded in kind. China, for instance, announced additional tariffs on U.S. goods. The uncertainty has caused oil prices to drop by nearly 4% and base metal prices in London to extend their declines due to fears of an economic downturn.
According to Citi, the impact of the tariffs is expected to have a negative effect on commodity markets as pre-buying and stockpiling would reverse, tightening the markets that were robust for the past few months. The bank suggests that any market rallies based on trade deal news should be viewed as selling opportunities. They also believe that U.S. gas and gold markets will perform relatively well in the near future.