Subramanian's analysis suggests that tariffs could have a significant impact on S&P 500 earnings per share, estimating a range from 5% to 32%. Despite acknowledging that this analysis is oversimplified, she raises concerns about the uncertainties surrounding boycotts and the challenges in assessing their effects.

One of the key challenges in evaluating the impact on the stock market is the lack of detailed disclosure by publicly-traded companies on their overseas exposure. This opacity complicates the analysis of secondary effects such as supply chain disruptions and potential recessions resulting from prolonged negotiations. Factors like pricing power, currency fluctuations, and companies' responses to tariffs, including expanding in the U.S to avoid them, also play a role in mitigating tariff impacts.

Subramanian notes the absence of a clear tariff strategy and emphasizes the abundance of unknown variables. The complexity of the current landscape makes it difficult to accurately predict outcomes, especially with the potential for short-lived or reduced tariffs.

The upcoming earnings season presents an opportunity for companies to provide insights on the impact of tariffs on their earnings. However, many firms have been reluctant to discuss this topic without specific details from the administration. As more information becomes available, analysts can adjust EPS forecasts and provide investors with a better understanding of market valuations.

While uncertainties and market volatility are heightened in the short term, experts believe that stocks remain a sound investment for the long term, despite the challenges in predicting near-future developments. Sticking to a financial plan that considers periods of volatility is advisable during such uncertain times.

Monitoring earnings reports during the upcoming season may reveal more about the potential impacts of tariffs on companies. The various macroeconomic indicators point to a mix of positive and negative trends, with challenges like deteriorating manufacturing surveys and mixed services sector data adding to the complexity of the economic landscape.

In conclusion, navigating the current economic environment requires a careful assessment of risks and a long-term perspective. Despite uncertainties and potential challenges, the focus on long-term investing and maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed and prepared for potential shifts is essential for investors.