Trump's implementation of tariffs has negatively impacted stock market sentiment and raised concerns about a potential economic downturn. While some analysts view the tariffs as a bargaining tool that could potentially be reversed, betting markets predict that the tariffs will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, known for accurately predicting the outcome of last year's US presidential election, suggest that there is a high probability that tariffs will not be lifted within the next few months. Despite some hope for a reduction in tariffs by July, the general outlook remains pessimistic, with a significant portion of speculators expecting tariffs to persist.

Analysts speculate that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy is aimed at enhancing negotiation leverage to secure favorable trade agreements. Although there is a possibility of tariff cuts if other countries offer favorable terms, the prevailing sentiment among betting markets is one of concern about a potential recession, with odds indicating a 60% chance of economic downturn.

Despite some expressing doubts about the sustainability of the extreme tariffs, there is a prevailing sense of uncertainty and fear that the tariffs could lead to significant economic repercussions and market instability, potentially pushing the US and other nations into a global recession.