Goldman lowers oil price projections due to tariff concerns and increased OPEC+ supply
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Goldman Sachs has revised its predictions for the average prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) this year. The forecast for Brent crude has been decreased by 5.5% to $69 per barrel, and for WTI, it has been lowered by 4.3% to $66. This adjustment is due to concerns about potential increases in OPEC+ supply and the trade war potentially causing a global economic downturn. The brokerage has also slashed its 2026 average price projections for Brent by 9% to $62 and for WTI by 6.3% to $59, with a warning that these estimates might be further reduced. Goldman analysts expressed that the downward risks to their oil price forecast are significant, particularly for 2026, as the likelihood of a recession and higher OPEC+ output continue to grow. Brent crude was trading at $69.59 a barrel, and WTI was at $66.39 as of 0408 GMT on Friday. Following U.S. President Trump's imposition of tariffs and OPEC+ members unexpectedly increasing production cuts in May, crude prices experienced their most substantial declines since 2022. Goldman also noted that OPEC's swift adjustment of output levels has reduced the chances of short-term price increases due to reduced supply. The brokerage anticipates oil demand this year to be between 600,000 and 700,000 barrels per day, lower than the prior forecast of 900,000 barrels.

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