An influential travel forecasting company stated on Tuesday that the Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric are likely to further decrease international travel to the U.S. this year. Tourism Economics projects a 9.4% decline in foreign arrivals, nearly double the original forecast of 5% made in February. The company had initially predicted a robust year for international travel to the U.S., expecting a 9% increase from 2024.

Recent incidents at U.S. borders involving European tourists and various policy decisions and statements from the administration have deterred potential visitors, causing resentment among travelers. The repercussions of this decline will impact airlines, hotels, national parks, and other tourist destinations.

Tourism Economics anticipates a 20% drop in travel from Canada, affecting border states like New York and Michigan, as well as popular destinations such as California, Nevada, and Florida. Observations from other travel-related companies, like Air Canada reporting a 10% decrease in bookings to the U.S., support these concerns.

President of Tourism Economics, Adam Sacks, projects a $9 billion reduction in spending by foreign visitors compared to 2024, when international tourism saw a 9.1% increase. Despite efforts to correct the trade deficit with tariffs, Sacks notes that they are discouraging international travelers from spending in the U.S., ultimately worsening the trade balance.

Sacks highlights that international arrivals were on track to reach 2019 levels before the pandemic disrupted travel, but he now predicts that it may take until 2029 for numbers to recover.