Donald Trump's potential 2024 campaign may include implementing a 20% "blanket" tariff on most goods imported to the United States. This proposal could significantly shift the president's trade strategy, deviating from his prior plans for country-specific tariffs due to implementation challenges and political issues. Despite warnings from economists about the negative impact on the economy, Trump has consistently favored imposing such tariffs.
Studies suggest that introducing a 20% blanket tariff could raise inflation by more than 2% and reduce household purchasing power by $3,400-$4,200, with an average effective tariff rate of 32.8%, the highest since 1872. Additionally, estimates predict an average tax increase of $2,045 per household if the proposed tariffs are imposed. Even reports from pro-Trump organizations acknowledge that tariffs would lead to higher consumer prices.
There are indications that the Trump administration is considering the implementation of 20% tariffs, spurred by ambitions to generate significant revenues. Senior White House official Peter Navarro mentioned that these tariffs could potentially add $700 billion annually to the US treasury. However, experts believe that such aggressive tariffs may not yield the projected revenue and could invite retaliatory measures from other countries. Trump's shift towards blanket tariffs symbolizes a significant departure from his past economic pledges and could have profound implications on market stability.