Investors have been facing challenges in 2025 due to the ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump. The markets have been experiencing unprecedented volatility, leaving many investors concerned as Trump does not appear to share the same level of worry. Banks and investors have been revising their expectations for the year due to the escalating trade tensions. Trump's tariff deadline on April 2nd is being dubbed as America's "liberation day," however, investors who were initially optimistic are now struggling to navigate the increased volatility. The stock market recently wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite registering significant losses. The unexpected actions of Trump since his re-election have caught many off guard, despite his previous promises to negotiate trade deals that would benefit the country. The initial expectation of Trump versus the Fed and potential inflation rebound due to tariffs has now shifted towards Trump versus the market. The White House seems unfazed by the market turmoil, indicating that they are not concerned about the declining equity prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the administration is not troubled by the market volatility, while Trump believes that tariffs will bring economic benefits. The president is currently focusing on lowering borrowing costs by monitoring the 10-year US Treasury yield. Forecasters and investors on Wall Street are readjusting their expectations for the year due to the current market conditions. Surveys indicate a bearish sentiment among investors regarding the market outlook, with fear levels notably high compared to historical averages. Fund managers have been selling stocks at an unprecedented rate, leading to a significant underweight position in the US market. Major banks are revising their forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs being the first to lower its target for the S&P 500 in early March.
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