President Donald Trump has put a hold on most federal grants and loans, causing analysts to revise their S&P 500 targets for the second quarter. Concerns of inflation and stagflation due to tariffs are emerging, creating potential risks in the upcoming months. Despite these worries, Deutsche Bank believes there is room for positive surprises. The current economic climate, influenced by Trump's tariffs, has led to a decline in consumer sentiment and CEO confidence. Analysts are becoming more pessimistic about the second quarter, citing uncertainties related to tariffs. Deutsche Bank highlights three key risks to monitor: countries' reactions to US tariffs, potential escalation of a trade war, and the impact on consumer behavior. Despite the negative outlook, there is a possibility of improvement if tariff policies become more predictable. Data suggests that consumer sentiment is at a four-year low, but some economic indicators remain strong, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the prevailing concerns.