Global markets were filled with uncertainty as investors braced themselves for President Donald Trump's impending trade tariff announcements. This uncertainty, coupled with concerns over a potential economic slowdown, prompted investors to reduce risk in their portfolios and seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
Treasury bonds and European bonds saw significant gains, while gold prices reached record highs and the yen strengthened as investors sought stability amidst market turmoil. Stocks experienced a global decline, particularly in countries expected to be most impacted by the new tariffs, such as South Korea and Taiwan.
Investor focus shifted towards the possibility of a recession, leading to a flight from riskier assets and a growing demand for safe havens prior to Trump's planned tariff announcements. This environment has driven a notable increase in US government debt, outperforming US equities for the first time in five years. The S&P 500 is facing its worst performance in comparison to global markets since the 1980s over a three-month period.
Market analyst Win Thin noted that risk aversion was prevalent at the beginning of the week as tariff concerns escalated. Trump's recent comments hinting at reciprocal tariffs with "all countries" have heightened uncertainties surrounding the size and scope of the trade policies.
In response to the market uncertainties, short-maturity US bonds, particularly sensitive to monetary policy changes, recorded gains as traders anticipated more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support economic growth. European bonds also saw an increase in demand, with predictions of multiple rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank throughout the year.