The Treasury market, valued at $29 trillion, is finishing a successful month as investors monitor trade tensions and crucial labor data that could influence Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions. US government debt returns, as measured by Bloomberg, have increased by around 2% in March, leading to a decline in 10-year yields by half a percentage point from their high in 2025. Traders are projecting two interest rate cuts for the year, with a 50-50 chance of a third cut, as two-year yields have dropped below 4%.

The upcoming release of March's employment data on Friday will play a significant role in shaping market expectations, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any rate adjustments should not be rushed due to the stable labor market conditions. Data on job openings (JOLTS) on Tuesday and ADP employment figures on Wednesday will offer further insights into the labor market.

Key points to watch include economic data releases such as manufacturing activity, construction spending, and job reports, as well as Fed officials' speeches scheduled throughout the week. Additionally, auction calendars list upcoming sales of government bills as part of market operations.