In London, investors were prepared for potential turbulence this year due to the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to power in the world's largest economy and financial market. However, the extent of the unpredictability and fluctuations has caught many by surprise.
Although global stocks seem to be relatively stable from the surface compared to the beginning of the year and volatility measures like the VIX are not as high as during previous crises, a closer look reveals significant changes.
Gold, which is typically seen as a safe investment during uncertain times, experienced its best quarter since 1986 due to Trump's trade policies. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is facing one of its weakest starts to a year since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The tech giants in the U.S., known as the 'Magnificent Seven', have encountered significant setbacks. Despite being lucrative investments in the past, they have collectively lost about $2 trillion and are now overshadowed by Chinese competitors and European defense companies.
Nicolas Forest, the Chief Investment Officer of multi-asset fund manager Candriam, highlighted the remarkable shift in market dynamics, noting that the previous expectations of rising inflation under Trump's policies have now been replaced with concerns about recession risk.
This change in market sentiment has led to a significant transformation in the global bond market. U.S. Treasuries are on track to end the first quarter with a solid 2.7% return, while yields have decreased by more than 20 basis points. In contrast, German Bund yields have surged over 40 basis points following Germany's decision to increase defense spending in response to reduced military support from the U.S.
The decline of the U.S. dollar by 4% has benefited emerging market currencies, with the Russian rouble experiencing a notable 35% increase. Other currencies such as Poland's zloty and the Czech crown have also shown gains of over 5%, signaling positive outcomes amid global uncertainties.