The upward trend in European banking stocks continues with no signs of slowing down following another strong quarter. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index has surged 25% this year, marking its best performance since 2020 and making it the leading sector in Europe. Investors are showing increasing interest and analysts predict further growth.
Several factors are driving this surge, including robust earnings, significant share buybacks and merger and acquisition potential, as well as substantial public spending plans that are expected to maintain high European interest rates. Banks have experienced a 10-quarter winning streak, with returns surpassing 160%, significantly outperforming the broader market.
Analysts believe the current environment for banks is unique, with positive indicators such as loan growth, a rising yield curve, and potential regulatory relief. Despite initial expectations of a slowdown in performance due to central banks lowering rates, banks' resilience and buyback programs have supported their shares. Banks like Societe Generale SA, Commerzbank AG, and Banco Santander SA, which have implemented share buybacks, have seen significant gains.
Recent developments, such as Germany's passing of a substantial spending package, including funds for defense and infrastructure, have further boosted bank stocks. Analysts anticipate increased loan growth due to government expenditure, leading to a positive outlook for lenders in the region.
The geopolitical landscape and decreasing inflation have lessened the likelihood of the European Central Bank cutting rates below 1.5%, which is positive for lending revenue. Despite recent rate cuts by the ECB, indications suggest that the cutting phase may be coming to an end, providing further support for European banks.