China is scaling back its seaborne gas imports at a rapid pace, jeopardizing growth expectations that have prompted significant investments in projects worldwide. Chinese purchases of liquefied natural gas are set to decline this year for the first time since 2022, a shift from previous forecasts of record-high volumes. While the current decrease in demand is offering short-term benefits to European buyers vying for the same resources, sustained lower consumption levels could lead to oversupply in the future when more projects come online.

Analysts at BloombergNEF have adjusted their projection for Chinese LNG imports in 2025 to 74.89 million tons, down by 11 million tons from their previous estimate and lower than the amount imported in 2024. Factors contributing to this downturn include mild weather in the first quarter, increased overland supply from Kazakhstan, the impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy, and low energy stockpiles in Europe.

Significant investments have been made by LNG suppliers based on the expectation that China, the world's leading buyer of LNG, would drive demand growth for years to come. However, uncertainties are arising regarding China's role in boosting consumption levels due to the availability of cheaper energy alternatives such as coal, renewables, domestically-produced gas, and gas imported from Russia and central Asia. Economic slowdown and efforts to reduce energy expenses have dampened China's demand for LNG, which is generally more expensive due to processing and transportation costs from distant plants in countries like Qatar and the US.

Several companies, like Shell Plc, have heavily invested in new export projects with the belief that the LNG trade will remain profitable in the long term. Nevertheless, concerns are growing over China's commitment to increasing its consumption of LNG. Forecasts by other entities like ICIS also predict lower LNG imports for China this year, as Chinese buyers redirect contracted LNG shipments to Europe where prices are higher. Europe's share of global LNG imports has risen to 35% this year, up from an average of 25% in 2024, according to data from Morgan Stanley.