The U.S. government is at risk of defaulting on its $36.6 trillion debt between mid-July and early October unless Congress intervenes to increase the borrowing limit, as projected by the Bipartisan Policy Center think tank. Congress has a history of waiting until the last minute to negotiate raising the borrowing limit, causing unease in financial markets and leading to downgrades in the government's credit ratings by major credit agencies. Despite this, Congress's decisions to increase spending and reduce taxes have escalated the national debt.

The Congressional Budget Office is set to provide its own estimate for the X-date, the point at which the Treasury Department will be unable to meet all obligations. There is urgency emphasized by Shai Akabas, the vice president of economic policy at BPC, urging lawmakers to address the debt limit promptly.

The U.S. has never defaulted on its debt, but the mere possibility of it happening can stir upheaval in global financial markets. Past debt ceiling crises have negatively impacted the U.S. credit rating. Pinpointing an exact X-date is complex, influenced by various factors such as tax receipts, economic conditions, tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on foreign goods, and tax filing extensions for disaster victims.

Although unlikely, there is a chance of an earlier X-date in early June if tax collections fall short of estimates prior to the June 15 quarterly receipts.