Following the imprisonment of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political opponent in Turkey, numerous demonstrators protested on the streets, while the response from Western allies was relatively subdued.
Turkey's President, who also leads NATO's second-largest military force, is capitalizing on his strategic value in various international conflicts to navigate his way around potential criticism over his country's democratic situation. With the United States and Europe focused on security concerns, Erdogan has established himself as a significant player in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Africa.
Despite some complaints from European cities, the global condemnation following the formal arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu by a Turkish court was noticeably lacking. While Germany's outgoing chancellor expressed disappointment over Imamoglu's prior detention, the US State Department dismissed the issue as an internal affair.
The Turkish government maintains that prosecutors operate independently without political influence, although many dissenters who challenge Erdogan have faced imprisonment, especially in recent times. However, the arrest of a prominent figure like Imamoglu, widely considered capable of defeating Erdogan in the next election, marks a new precedent.
Erdogan seems to have wagered that Turkey's increasing strategic importance outweighs any setbacks in its democratic record. This gamble has been politically beneficial, even as foreign investors withdraw from Turkish assets, risking the setback of recent efforts to attract foreign capital.
Amid the conflict in Ukraine, Europe is relying more on Turkey, appreciating its expanding military presence and defense capabilities as US security commitments in Europe are reassessed by President Donald Trump.
Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that Erdogan is benefitting from a favorable global climate and anticipates limited opposition from Europe and the US.
Imamoglu, a significant figure in the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), was detained on allegations of corruption soon after his university diploma was revoked, a necessary qualification for presidential candidacy. He refutes all charges against him.