Chart of the Week: Wall Street’s S&P 500 Forecast Range Expanding
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In today's Morning Brief, three Wall Street strategy teams have revised their S&P 500 outlooks downward due to the recent market downturn. They believe that economic growth projections have declined because of the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's policies, contrary to the expectations of continued strong economic growth in the US. Strategists now suggest that the market may no longer sustain the high valuations seen in the last two years, indicating that the S&P 500 may not experience significant gains. Despite this, 16 out of 17 strategists predict that the benchmark index will still rise.

There is currently no clear consensus among forecasters, with predictions ranging from a 10% to over 26% increase in the S&P 500. The market is expected to remain hesitant until there is more clarity on President Trump's policy directions, which will influence future stock market movements based on economic and corporate profit outlooks.

Deutsche Bank's chief strategist, Bankim Chadha, believes that if there is a resolution to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, the S&P 500 could reach 7,000 this year. However, some strategists caution that the path ahead may face more challenges, indicating potential rocky times for stocks with stronger headwinds. RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end S&P 500 target to 6,200, suggesting a more uncertain trajectory for stocks going forward.

Scott Chronert, a Citi equity strategist, notes a shift in investor sentiment towards more pessimistic views, with concerns rising about the S&P 500 hitting a "bear case" of 5,500. This contrasts with the optimism of the past two years, where the focus was on whether strategists were bullish enough.

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