Economists are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision amidst uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape. Some experts are raising questions about the Fed's ability to steer the economy effectively during the Trump administration.
The economic outlook in the US is shrouded in uncertainty, with worries regarding a potential recession and market volatility. The financial markets are on edge for the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and what it signifies for the economy post the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Nonetheless, there are additional concerns among analysts apart from this routine event.
Thierry Wizman, a global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie, highlighted the apprehension about the Fed not meeting expectations for two or three rate cuts as hoped by the market this year. He expressed concerns that the Fed might have ceded control of the macroeconomic policy to the Trump administration.
Since assuming office, President Donald Trump has been pushing for substantial changes that could have significant impacts on the US economy, ranging from trade and immigration policies to reducing the federal workforce. Wizman noted that the White House's policy direction, particularly concerning tariffs, has not been clearly defined yet.
The Federal Reserve decreased rates three times in the latter half of the previous year and hinted at further reductions. Analysts are now observing closely the pace of rate adjustments after the central bank maintained rates in January, with some speculating the possibility of rate hikes this year.
With limited influence over Trump's policies, the Federal Reserve, which employs monetary policy and interest rates to manage the economy, finds itself in a challenging situation. Steven Blitz, the chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, emphasized that the current economic concerns are not solely due to interest rates but are exacerbated by the White House's agenda to take charge of economic management, potentially revealing weaknesses in the private sector as government expenditure is trimmed.
This shift has created an atmosphere of uncertainty around the macroeconomic and market outlook in the US, the largest economy globally, accounting for about a quarter of the global GDP, as the subsequent Trump administration seems to be more tolerant of market turbulence.