RBC Decreases Year-End S&P 500 Target Due to Worries About Economic Growth
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Another strategist on Wall Street has reduced her year-end target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC), citing worries about economic growth.

Lori Calvasina, the head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, adjusted her year-end target for the S&P 500 down to 6,200 from 6,600, following a 10% drop in the index. This decision comes after both Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research also decreased their targets recently.

Calvasina expressed in a note to clients that although she doesn't anticipate a further decline beyond the existing 10% drop, she believes the path for stocks until December has become more challenging due to increased obstacles.

The downbeat view on US economic growth from the RBC Capital Markets economics team influenced the revised S&P 500 estimate. RBC now predicts the economy will grow by 1.6% this year, compared to the previous estimate of 2%. Calvasina pointed out that in years when GDP growth falls in the "sluggish" range of 1.1%-2%, the stock market often experiences declines.

Due to the anticipation of slower economic growth and some companies already cutting their first-quarter forecasts, Calvasina now projects that earnings per share for the S&P 500 will finish 2025 at $264, below the previous forecast of $271. Additionally, she envisions a bear case scenario where the S&P 500 could end the year at 5,550, which marks a potential 2% drop from current levels.

Even though the new base case target of 6,200 suggests that the S&P 500 might have already hit its bottom for the year, Calvasina admits to having some uncertainty regarding this prediction.

Survey data from both consumers and businesses in recent months have shown a decline, reflecting concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies on the market sentiment. As of now, this negative sentiment has not significantly affected data like the monthly jobs report.

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