Arthur Hayes has foreseen a significant decrease in Bitcoin's value, anticipating a rebound to a new all-time high by the year's end. While his predictions were not directly linked to the current market turmoil related to DeepSeek, he suggested that these events could potentially act as a driving force.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has shifted his near-term Bitcoin forecasts, now predicting a substantial correction in the cryptocurrency's price. Instead of his previous estimation of a mid-March peak followed by a sharp decline, he now anticipates that Bitcoin is on the verge of a significant downturn.
In a recent update, Hayes stated, "I am forecasting a correction of $70,000 to $75,000 for BTC, a minor financial crisis, and a return to increased money printing that will propel us to $250,000 by the end of the year." He elaborated on this projection on his personal blog, highlighting various global economic factors influencing his outlook.
Hayes attributes his short-term bearish view on Bitcoin to the increasingly unfavorable global fiat liquidity environment, driven by factors such as rising US 10-year Treasury yields, a tightening Federal Reserve, and reduced money printing in major economies like the US, China, and Japan. These developments have elevated financial pressure, negatively impacting fiat-priced assets, including Bitcoin, which Hayes suggests is particularly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
Recognizing frequent price corrections amidst Bitcoin's volatile nature during bull markets, Hayes emphasized the market's surpassing of the March 2024 all-time high post-Trump's re-election victory in early November 2024. He underscored the implications of the Trump administration's approach to money printing and its potential impact on global economies.
Although initially undeterred by DeepSeek's impact on the crypto market, Hayes noted the protocol's influence further solidified his stance. Despite record BTC ETF volumes and significant selling by long-term holders post-DeepSeek, Hayes believes these events align with ongoing trends in the Bitcoin market.
While acknowledging President Trump's promises of pro-crypto regulatory changes, Hayes remains skeptical of the Federal Reserve's support for Trump's agenda due to perceived personal conflicts within the administration. Additionally, he examined the economic policies of various nations and their potential effects on Bitcoin, expressing confidence in the digital currency's resilience and long-term growth prospects despite short-term price fluctuations.