Bitcoin's recent climb over the key psychological level of $105,000 has sparked increased activity among its long-term holders (LTHs). On-chain data shows a noticeable surge in realized profits among this group in recent days, indicating that many long-term investors are capitalizing on the significant price gains by selling their coins for a profit.
According to a recent report by CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, Bitcoin long-term holders (those who have held their coins for over 150 days) have been significantly increasing their profit-taking activities based on on-chain data analysis. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) for BTC, which measures whether investors who have held onto the asset for more than a year are profitable, hit a low of 1.32 on March 12 but has since climbed steadily to reach 2.274 by May 13. This represents a 71.33% increase in realized profits over two months, suggesting that coins sold by long-term holders are fetching much higher profit margins compared to earlier in the year.
This uptrend in profit-taking among long-term holders may reflect their desire to lock in gains amid an improvement in market sentiment or in anticipation of potential corrections. Such profit-taking behavior could play a crucial role in predicting future price movements, given historical trends that show significant price fluctuations in Bitcoin following similar periods.
Traditionally, peaks in BTC's LTH-SOPR have signaled distribution phases where experienced investors start offloading their holdings ahead of potential market downturns. Nevertheless, Alemán notes that the market is not yet at its cycle peak, possibly due to the persistent positive funding rate of 0.0025%, indicating strong demand for long positions among futures market players.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $101,726, representing a 2% decline over the past day amid a broader market pullback. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) on the daily chart is trending downwards, signaling weakening buying pressure or increasing selling pressure as traders and investors cash in on BTC's recent uptrend beyond $105,000. If selling pressure intensifies, BTC could face downward pressure, potentially dropping to $98,044. Conversely, a resumption of accumulation could enable the coin to break resistance at $102,080 and target a rally towards $104,971.