Ethereum has shown stronger growth than Bitcoin recently, resulting in a significant increase in the ETH/BTC trading pair. This surge has raised expectations for a potential altcoin season in the future.

Despite the excitement, a careful analysis of past data suggests that these hopes may be premature.

The recent breakout of the ETH/BTC pair, the first since December 2024, has been a positive development. This breakout, signaling an uptrend with a higher low, represents a notable 34% increase in just one week. A comparable surge hasn't occurred in nearly three years, the last one being in July 2022 when the ETH/BTC pair jumped by 56% in a month and a half. While this is encouraging, it is uncertain if this momentum will be sustainable enough to trigger a broader altcoin rally.

Looking back at 2022, Ethereum's significant price increase of 121% over a month, from around $1,800 to nearly $4,000, led to a broader altcoin season. However, currently, only 18% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies are outperforming Bitcoin. This data suggests that while there has been a recent breakout in the ETH/BTC pair, the chances of a full-scale altcoin season happening soon are slim. But it is not impossible. If altcoins start gaining momentum, a potential altcoin season could still occur before the end of Q2.

In order for Ethereum to replicate its past success, it would need to see a substantial increase of 67% to reach $4,004, which would require consistent bullish market conditions. A more achievable target for Ethereum would be to break and maintain the $2,814 support level. This breakthrough could pave the way for further gains, potentially surpassing $3,000.

However, the overall bullish outlook depends on Ethereum maintaining crucial support levels. Failing to breach $2,654 and dropping below $2,344 or even $2,141 could reverse recent gains and invalidate the positive price forecast.