Based on a mathematical analysis by financial specialist Fred Krueger, there is a 77% likelihood that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach its all-time high this year. This perspective aligns with other experts' views, pointing to a decreasing US Dollar Index (DXY) and increasing M2 global liquidity as drivers for Bitcoin's forthcoming bullish trend.

Krueger's assessment, leveraging the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, suggests that Bitcoin could rise from the current price of approximately $85,000 to $108,000 by 2025. The GBM model, commonly used in finance to forecast asset price behavior, assumes two main components: a deterministic trend representing the expected return over time and a random element accounting for asset price volatility.

Initially assuming BTC follows a GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility, Krueger calculated a 65% probability of Bitcoin hitting $108,000. However, after adjusting the model to include the coin's historical growth trend with a 40% power law drift, the odds increased to 77%, as confirmed by a simulation conducted by ChatGPT.

Contrary to figures on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which estimate lower chances for BTC hitting new highs, Krueger believes these variations can be leveraged through dynamic hedging strategies.

Another analyst shares Krueger's optimistic outlook, linking a potential bull run for Bitcoin to the strong correlation with M2 Global Liquidity and the weakening US dollar. This analyst foresees Bitcoin's short-term pullback to $80,000 while remaining bullish long-term, projecting Bitcoin to reach $550,000 to $650,000 by 2030, influenced by currency devaluation and Bitcoin's capped supply.

Presently, Bitcoin trades around 22.1% below its ATH, with a slight 0.6% decline in the last day. The current trading price of BTC is $84,338.