Money markets showed signs of strain on Monday amid a strong selloff in global equities, leading to increased demand for dollars. Three-month cross-currency basis swaps, indicating non-U.S. demand for dollars, reached their highest levels for the euro and the pound since late 2023, and for the Japanese yen since five months ago. The three-month euro cross-currency basis swap rate hit -5.375%, the lowest since November 2023, reflecting increased demand for dollars from euro-based investors compared to the previous week when the rate was at 12.5%. President Donald Trump's persistent stance on tariffs and China's retaliatory actions have raised concerns about a potential global recession. Financial experts advised monitoring the EUR/USD three-month cross-currency basis swap closely for any significant widening in favor of the dollar, signaling potential trouble and a likely intervention by the Federal Reserve.
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