China further heightened tensions in the international trade dispute by imposing an additional 34% tariff on American goods, in response to President Donald Trump's recent tariffs. This move, coupled with the existing pressure from Trump's tariffs and the expected rise in OPEC+ production, caused crude oil prices to drop by 8% on Friday, nearing their lowest levels since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.

Experts and brokerages shared their insights on how China's retaliatory tariffs could impact oil prices and speculated on where this downward trend might stabilize.

Tamas Varga from oil brokerage firm PVM emphasized the impact of the trade conflict on oil demand growth, predicting a significant decline due to escalating recession fears. He highlighted the exemption of U.S. energy imports from the tariffs and the surprise increase in oil production by OPEC+ in May as factors contributing to the bearish market sentiment and volatility. Varga suggested that once panic selling subsides and countermeasures are implemented, there could be a rebound in prices.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, pointed out that China's decision to implement counter measures marked a clear escalation in trade tensions. He raised concerns about a potential surplus in the oil market if a recession occurs, which may necessitate further production cuts by OPEC+.

Jorge Montepeque, Managing Director at Onyx Capital Group, noted that China's tariff announcement signified a significant strain on U.S.-China trade relations, hinting at a possible oil price decline to the $50 range.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, described China's response as a move towards a global trade war with adverse consequences for economic growth and commodity demand. Hansen anticipated a phase of both demand and supply destruction in the oil market, as high-cost producers face challenges amid the escalating trade tensions.