2025 saw a remarkable surge in altcoins, with many hitting new all-time highs and others reaching multi-month peaks as a result of a rally ignited by Donald Trump that swept through the crypto market.
However, the escalating trade conflicts instigated by Trump and widespread macroeconomic instability have triggered a substantial downturn in numerous altcoins, casting doubt on the timing of the next altcoin season.
The concept of altcoin season encompasses a market phase during which cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin outshine BTC in terms of price gains. This period often witnesses significant price hikes for various altcoins fueled by heightened investor speculation, capital migration from BTC to alternative crypto assets, and a bullish market sentiment.
The cycle typically begins when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a three-month span. Currently, this scenario seems distant. The Altcoin Index, a barometer for this trend, has recorded its lowest level since October 2024, indicating persistent weakness in the sector.
As of the latest data, only 24% of top altcoins have surpassed Bitcoin in price performance over the past 90 days, underscoring Bitcoin's dominance in the ongoing market cycle. The consistent underperformance implies that an altcoin season may be postponed.
Additionally, TOTAL2, a metric monitoring the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC, has been following a descending parallel channel since the start of the year.
This pattern is indicative of a prolonged downtrend, characterized by the asset's price fluctuating between two downward-sloping parallel trendlines, with diminishing highs and lows over time. At the moment, TOTAL2 stands at $1.14 trillion, marking a 17% decline since January 1.
The dwindling figures confirm the absence of robust bullish momentum in the altcoin market, suggesting that the initiation of an altcoin season is unlikely in the near future.
In the midst of a market retreat triggered by Trump's trade disputes, Bitcoin's dominance has continued on an upward trajectory. Analysis of Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) on a daily chart reveals a sustained ascent.
This metric, which gauges Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, has been above an ascending trend line since December. Currently, it is at 61.29%. Should Bitcoin's dominance persist at elevated levels, the onset of an altcoin season could face further delays.